Introduction:In his speech on "Analysis of the Current Economic and Financial Situation", Zhao Xijun said that the environment facing my country's development in 2019 will be more complex and severe, and it can be expected There are more and greater challenges and unpredictable risks, for which you must be fully mentally prepared. For the ceramic industry and the entire home furnishing industry, this economic situation is both a huge challenge and a new opportunity. Only by fully understanding the overall trend of macroeconomic development can ceramic brands follow the general trend of channel fission and make correct judgments and choices.
On April 11, the "9th China Real Estate and Pan-Home Industry Cross-border Summit and 2019" was held at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. At the "Annual China Building and Sanitary Ceramics Top Ten Brand List Awards Ceremony", Zhao Xijun, deputy dean, professor, School of Finance, Renmin University of China, director of the Institute of Finance and Securities, chairman of the Academic Committee of the China Cross-border Finance 50 Forum, and famous financial scientist Zhao Xijun Delivered a keynote speech on "Analysis of Current Economic and Financial Situation".
Based on the current economic and financial situation, it is mainly analyzed from four aspects:The first is the external economic and financial environment; the second is the challenges of the traditional economic and financial operating model; the third is the high The requirements of the quality development model for financial operations; the fourth is a summary of the economic situation in 2018 and an analysis of economic work in 2019.
▲Zhao Xijun
1. External economic and financial environment
Since last year, major changes have occurred, and the world economy has undergone profound changes.Adjustment, protectionism and unilateralism are on the rise, the economy has encountered setbacks, there are still many uncertainties, and risks and challenges have intensified. The economy is undergoing major changes, development, and adjustments, which has also brought uncertainty to the entire economic environment.
Challenges in the external environment mainly come from two aspects.The first is changes in U.S. monetary policy, and the second is trade friction between China and the United States.
In the process of raising interest rates since 2015, the Federal Reserve returned to normal after raising interest rates nine times. But from a global perspective, interest rate hikes mean that interest rates on the U.S. dollar continue to rise, and the U.S.'s financial attractiveness to other countries has begun to decline.
As for the impact of Sino-US trade friction, the International Monetary Fund believes that Sino-US trade friction continues to escalate, and both parties benefit from each other. From 2019 to 2020, it may directly affect China's economic growth by 0.5 percentage points or 1 percentage point.
Zhou Xiaochuan, former governor of the Central Bank of China, also believes that escalating friction will directly affect China's economic growth by 0.5 to 1 percentage point. For China, the overall scale of China's national economic aggregate is huge. It exceeded 90 trillion yuan by the end of last year. Even 1 percentage point will have a large impact.
2. Challenges of the traditional economic and financial operating model
Regarding the traditional economic and financial operation model, Zhao Xijun attributed it to a model characterized by the pursuit of rapid growth and scale expansion. To speed up development, every industry, every enterprise, and the entire country are the same. The investment speed must be fast and the economic growth speed must be fast, which will also affect the rapid growth of the financial industry. Behind rapid growth, there are often some thought-provoking questions.question.
For example, China experienced a "money shortage" in the banking system in 2013 and a stock market crash in 2015. At the same time, from August 2015 to the end of 2016, the RMB Facing huge depreciation pressure for more than a year, the decline of the stock market has brought huge risks to the entire market and the entire financial system.
At the same time, in 2015, China was seeking to allow the RMB to join the International Fund. From 2015 to the end of 2016, in more than a year, China’s foreign exchange reserves decreased by about 1%. Trillion US dollars. This trillion US dollars is basically used to support the stability of the RMB exchange rate and market fluctuations, which will have an immeasurable impact on the national economy.
He believes that any country must pay a price to resolve the risk of stock market decline. For example, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2008 failed to solve the problem itself. In the end, it had to mobilize global forces to solve the problem. For this purpose, an organization like the G20 was established. These are precisely the problems derived from the traditional economic development model.
In response to the problems caused by the development of the traditional economic model, China began to introduce strong regulatory measures in 2017 to minimize the risks caused by economic development. Zhao Xijun believes that the current Chinese economy has entered a new era. The characteristic of the new era is no longer the blind pursuit of high-speed growth and scale expansion, but the pursuit of high-quality development.
3. Requirements of high-quality development model for financial operations
What is high-quality development? High-quality development means solving problems that may arise during economic development. From a macro perspective, he believes that it includes two aspects: unbalanced development and insufficient development. For example, someone wants to invest but can’t find itInvestment channels, some companies have extra money but no place to spend it, and companies have financing but no channels. These are all problems of unbalanced and inadequate development encountered in the economy.
In addition, Zhao Xijun believes thatthe risks that arise in the process of economic development, the increase in poverty, and environmental pollution are not manifestations of high-quality development. But a traditional development model. In response to China's high-quality development requirements, it began to strengthen market supervision in 2017. In 2018, monetary growth, credit growth, and social financing growth all returned to a reasonable state.
It is precisely under the requirements of the high-quality development model that China has made progress in economy, society and key work in 2018, and its economic growth has reached a very large scale - —90 trillion, which is 12 trillion when converted into U.S. dollars. However, compared with the U.S. GDP of 20 trillion U.S. dollars, China's economy still has considerable development potential.
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4. Summary of the economic situation in 2018 and analysis of economic work in 2019< /p>
In 2018, although China’s economy achieved a growth rate of 6.6%, on the other hand, Zhao Xijun talked about the process of China’s economic development in 2018, which also produced many contradictions, such as It is said that the first half of 2018 was a major challenge for enterprises and local governments due to the downward pressure on the economy.
He said,From the perspective of the internal environment faced by economic development, the economic environment in 2019 is also facing a complex situation. Compared with 2018, it is only more complex and more complex. Grim. Even if a compromise is finally reached in the Sino-US trade war, it will only be a new starting point for competition with the United States. Therefore, the requirements for high-quality economic development in 2019 are only more stringent than in 2018. For enterprises, the pressure they face is no less than in 2018.
For the economic analysis in 2019, he believes that China’s economic growth rate in 2019 is set to be between 6% and 6.5%. For both the government and enterprises, stable employment is the key to achieving important measure for economic growth.
He analyzed from a financial perspective that high-quality economic development can be promoted through the supply-side reform of finance, because in the financial field, there are quite a few supply problems. If the market structure, business philosophy, innovation capabilities, and service levels do not meet the requirements of high-quality economic development, many contradictions will arise. Therefore, supply reforms are needed to promote the development of the economy and enterprises.
For example, if companies need money, finance can solve this problem; people have a lot of investment needs, and companies have financing needs, so finance can meet the needs of investors and financiers. need. From a practical point of view, financial needs are from two aspects, one is residents and the other is enterprises. Enterprises have financing needs, while residents mostly have investment needs.
He said thatfinancial supply-side structural reform can improve the inclusiveness of the entire economic environment for both enterprises and investors, and has a positive impact on the economic development. Quality development is a good complementary requirement.
Generally speaking, for the ceramic industry and the entire home furnishing industry, this economic and high-quality development requirement is both a huge challenge and a new opportunity. Only by fully understanding the overall trend of macroeconomic development can ceramic brands follow the general trend of channel fission and make correct judgments and choices.
Congratulations again for being on the list of the top ten brands of Chinese architectural and sanitary ceramics!
▲Photos of award-winning brand companies receiving commendations
List of winning brands in the 2019 "China's Top Ten Architectural and Sanitary Ceramics Brands" list:
Top Ten Ceramic Brands in 2019
Wells Ceramics, Qianghui Ceramics, Shunhui Ceramics, Nengqiang Ceramics, Jiajun Ceramics, White Rabbit Ceramics, JinSiyuma tiles, Dajiulu super wear-resistant marble tiles, Tongli marble tiles, Lion Ceramics
Top Ten Bathroom Brands in 2019
Jiumu Sanitary Ware, Yigao Sanitary Ware, Emperor Sanitary Ware, Eagle Sanitary Ware, Langjing Sanitary Ware, Hengtong Sanitary Ware, Huihuang Sanitary Ware
Top ten ceramic tile brands in 2019
Asia tiles, gold medal Asia tiles, diamond tiles, Big Horn Deer super wear-resistant marble tiles, Jinyu famous tiles, Huiya tiles, Lee Home Ceramics, Laideli Ceramics, General Ceramics, Shuangqing Ceramics
2019 First-line Ceramic Brand
Nobel Ceramics, Marco Polo Ceramics, Nengqiang Ceramics, Qiangpai Ceramics, New Roman Ceramics, Ruyi Ceramic Tiles, Haolaideng Ceramics, Jinsilu Ceramics
Top Ten Modern Brick Brands in 2019
Jinyi Ceramic Tiles, Owen Lai Ceramics, Yao Ming Modern Tiles, Karona Ceramics, Bao Ensha Ceramics
Top Ten Brands of Functional Bricks in 2019
Marco Polo tiles, Nobel tiles, Qianghui ceramics, Taotao swimming pool tiles, Junyue tiles, Penguin tiles, Jianpai healthy tiles
The top ten brands of wood grain tiles in 2019
Mona Lisa tiles, Marco Polo tiles, Loulan tiles, Smic tiles, Trento ceramics
2019 Antique Brick Top TenBig brands
Jinyi ceramic tiles, Marco Polo tiles, Nobel tiles, L&D ceramics
Top ten porcelain tile brands in 2019
Nobel Ceramics, L&D Ceramics, Huaguan Ceramics, Imero Ceramics, Bo Porcelain Precision Tiles
Top ten marble tile brands in 2019
Jianyi marble tiles, Marco Polo tiles, Big Horn Deer super wear-resistant marble tiles, New Roman ceramics, Shenzhouxing ceramics, Yiwante ceramics
2019 Designer Recommended Brands
Marco Polo tiles, Nobel tiles, Xinzhongyuan ceramics, Jinduo tiles, colorx
2019 Project Recommended Brands
Nobel tiles, Dongpeng tiles, Marco Polo tiles, Jinduo tiles, Shuangqing tiles
